Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 4 prediction, odds, pick for 4/28: Is L.A. better without Kawhi?

Clippers vs. Mavericks Odds

Sunday, Apr 28, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Los Angeles Clippers

You can't really cap anything with the Clippers right now. Leonard is questionable for Game 4 with knee soreness. He hasn't looked anything like himself, and almost didn't play the second half of Game 4.

Luka Dončić has absolutely wrecked Leonard in isolation; the former DPOY is a shell of himself.

If Leonard doesn't play, the line will move towards the Mavericks and I'll like the Clippers more.

The Clippers' big issue is their offense. The player with the best on-off differential for offensive rating is Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is shooting 29% from the field and has eight assists to seven turnovers. Offensive rating is a team stat, not an individual one. But the fact that the rest of the Clippers' offense is so bad that it's better with Westbrook on the floor is nightmarish.

The Clippers have generated the second-fewest wide-open 3-point attempts in this series, via NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data. They are averaging the most tight (contest within 2-4 feet) and very tight (0-2 feet) attempts.

The basketball side summation of those numbers: The Clippers are settling.

Via Synergy Sports, the Clippers have the second-highest percentage of pull-up jumpers off the dribble of any team in the playoffs. They are shooting 37%. The Mavericks are the No. 1 team in terms of percentage of shots on pull-up jumpers and are shooting 42%.

That's literally your series. Neither team is creating good looks, but the Clippers have been worse by about 10 points per 100 possessions on the shots they take the most.

But this is also how the Clippers were built, with three tough shot-makers in Harden, Paul George and Leonard. With Leonard limited, the Mavericks have lived with Harden scoring, focused on George (who is 6-of-19 vs. Derrick Jones Jr. and Dončić combined while going 6-of-12 vs. Washington), and been able to pretty much ignore Leonard.

Westbrook has as many shots (24) as Leonard in this series after Leonard missed Game 1 and has shot a much worse percentage.

A key issue is that with Leonard, the Clippers stopped trying to create any leverage whatsoever. They generated 28 possessions from the pick and roll including passes in Game 1; they had 34 combined in Games 3 and 4. They just stopped trying to leverage the Mavericks whatsoever and just settled for simply kicking the ball around and hoisting a dribble pull-up.

They generated 36 3-pointers in Game 1, then 30 in Game 2 and just 29 in Game 3. Their shot quality is plummeting as the Mavericks get more comfortable.

The Clippers attacked the Mavericks' bigs relentlessly with Ivica Zubac in Game 1. They had six post-up possessions in Game 1. They had two total since and it allowed Daniel Gafford to stay on the floor as a rim protector and rim runner.

The Clippers' game plan was good to start the series and completely fell apart when Leonard came back.

Will that get back on track? I'm skeptical.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas dunked on the Clippers all of Game 3.

A big reason for that? The Clippers can't figure out Dončić at all. In previous matchups, they would switch 1-5 and live with Dončić going ISO. Now they are trying to play two up high in pick and roll, either in high drop or a soft at-level hedge. And the Mavericks picked at two particular scabs in help defense on the lob: Leonard and Norman Powell.

The way the Mavericks got involved with the roll man in Game 3, along with how passive the Clippers were, allowed for Gafford to stay on the floorm which he struggled with in Games 1 and 2. The Mavericks didn't even need Maxi Kleber to provide a small-ball option.

If the Clippers — up against the wall now and facing a potential 3-1 deficit — decide to change up their coverage, it likely comes with more switching on the perimeter to keep everyone home on the backside and cut off those lobs. That's going to open up more scoring chances for Dončić.

So, as always, we're left guessing on if a coach will make an adjustment or not. The Clippers would do well to play more small-ball lineups with P.J. Tucker, but he's DNP-CD in all three games of this series.

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Clippers vs. Mavericks

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm not convinced that Tyronn Lue will change up his coverage; he had no reason to play small last year vs. the Suns but that's what the team had done to get to the playoffs, so he kept doing it. This year, they've played big, so he's likely to keep playing it.

If Leonard doesn't play, I lean toward the Clippers. If he plays, I lean toward the Mavericks. If Leonard does play, I'll specifically play the Clippers' team total under along with Mavs -6. If Leonard is out, I'll play Clippers ML and team total over.

PJ Washington over 5.5 rebounds has been a wagon, and I'll play that again.

Picks:

• If Kawhi Leonard plays: Mavericks -6 & Clippers Team Total Under 101.5
• If Leonard doesn't play: Clippers ML & Clippers Team Total Over 101.5
• P.J. Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds